Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Getzlaf on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Getzlaf shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Getzlaf 53.0% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 61.8%
Defensive zone
Carter 64.7%
Neutral zone
Carter 63.2%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Carter
Getzlaf
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Carter
Getzlaf
Last 5: Carter 3-2 Getzlaf
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
0
Carter
Getzlaf
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Getzlaf
1
2
Carter
Getzlaf
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Getzlaf
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
52.5% (772)
+5.4%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
60.8% (153)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
48.0% (100)
-2.6%
On even strength, Carter has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Getzlaf shoots right. Carter is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Carter shoots right. Getzlaf is 60.8% vs right-shot opponents (222).
Home / Away
Carter
Getzlaf
Home
58.2% (543)
56.0% (557)
Away
55.9% (594)
50.0% (468)
By Period
Carter
Getzlaf
P1
57.5%
52.2%
P2
57.1%
53.0%
P3
55.8%
54.9%
OT
68.2%
46.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Getzlaf
54.0%▬
53.5%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Getzlaf |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 05:58 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 03:43 | Neutral | Ryan Getzlaf |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 08:45 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 05:12 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |