Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Aho 52.2% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 56.0%
Defensive zone
Carter 94.5%
Neutral zone
Carter 87.8%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 79.2%
79.2%
20.8%
Carter
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Carter
Aho
Last 8: Carter 6-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
1
Carter
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
4
0
Carter
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Carter
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
51.6% (819)
+6.3%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
58.4% (173)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
46.3% (67)
-0.9%
On even strength, Carter has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Carter shoots right. Aho is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Carter
Aho
Home
58.2% (543)
53.9% (568)
Away
55.9% (594)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Carter
Aho
P1
57.5%
55.4%
P2
57.1%
51.2%
P3
55.8%
50.9%
OT
68.2%
28.6%
Final 5 min
57.0%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 16:58 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 15:45 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 17:51 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 08:01 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 12:49 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 2 | 16:53 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 1 | 06:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |