Scouting Report
Craig Smith holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Skinner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 43.5% vs left-shot opponents — Skinner shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 45.2% vs Skinner 45.2% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 62.5%
Defensive zone
Smith 50.5%
Neutral zone
Smith 54.7%
Result
Craig Smith favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Smith
Skinner
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Smith
Skinner
Last 5: Smith 1-4 Skinner
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
0
2
Smith
Skinner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Skinner
1
2
Smith
Skinner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Skinner
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (332)
41.6% (149)
+3.3%
Power Play
38.9% (54)
60.0% (5)
-21.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
40.0% (5)
+10.0%
On power play, Skinner has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Skinner shoots left. Smith is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (292).
Smith shoots right. Skinner is 37.0% vs right-shot opponents (46).
Home / Away
Smith
Skinner
Home
46.1% (167)
46.8% (77)
Away
42.5% (226)
37.8% (82)
By Period
Smith
Skinner
P1
42.1%
45.6%
P2
43.4%
40.4%
P3
47.0%
40.4%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.6%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
44.0%
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2012 | 2 | 08:39 | Defensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 16:39 | Defensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 05:39 | Neutral | Craig Smith |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Jeff Skinner |