Scouting Report
Shawn Matthias holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Skinner on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Skinner 44.7% vs Matthias 46.6% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Skinner 92.7%
Defensive zone
Matthias 85.8%
Neutral zone
Skinner 54.4%
Result
Jeff Skinner favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Skinner
Matthias
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Skinner
Matthias
Last 8: Skinner 3-5 Matthias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
3
2
Skinner
Matthias
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthias
0
2
Skinner
Matthias
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthias
0
1
Skinner
Matthias
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Skinner
Matthias
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (1,317)
46.4% (1,716)
-4.1%
Power Play
52.0% (404)
56.3% (103)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
41.7% (175)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Matthias has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthias shoots left. Skinner is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,097).
Skinner shoots left. Matthias is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,275).
Home / Away
Skinner
Matthias
Home
48.2% (949)
46.9% (933)
Away
39.9% (791)
45.9% (1,069)
By Period
Skinner
Matthias
P1
41.6%
47.8%
P2
46.0%
49.4%
P3
46.4%
41.6%
OT
23.5%
45.0%
Final 5 min
46.0%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
44.4%
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2012 | 1 | 07:31 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 3 | 16:10 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 01:45 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 1 | 12:07 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 1 | 04:58 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Jan 3, 2011 | 2 | 11:16 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Jan 3, 2011 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |