Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.1% vs 56.1%). Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Smithson wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 55.3% vs Thornton 55.5% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 73.8%
Defensive zone
Smithson 72.5%
Neutral zone
Thornton 54.1%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Smithson
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Smithson
Thornton
Last 6: Smithson 1-5 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
4
Smithson
Thornton
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Smithson
Thornton
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (518)
55.8% (704)
+2.1%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
56.7% (208)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (108)
56.7% (67)
-6.7%
On power play, Thornton has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Smithson is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Smithson shoots right. Thornton is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Home / Away
Smithson
Thornton
Home
57.8% (306)
59.0% (493)
Away
54.6% (339)
53.2% (500)
By Period
Smithson
Thornton
P1
51.8%
55.3%
P2
54.8%
55.4%
P3
62.0%
57.1%
OT
25.0%
59.3%
Final 5 min
48.6%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.1%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2011 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 2 | 09:01 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 14:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 25, 2011 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Oct 25, 2011 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |