Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Smithson wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 56.5% vs Eller 50.5% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 71.8%
Defensive zone
Eller 53.3%
Neutral zone
Eller 62.7%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
Smithson
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Smithson
Eller
Last 10: Smithson 4-6 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
3
Smithson
Eller
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
3
Smithson
Eller
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Smithson
Eller
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
58.4% (1,842)
51.1% (10,296)
+7.3%
Power Play
55.6% (45)
52.8% (621)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (443)
46.7% (1,751)
+3.9%
On even strength, Smithson has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Smithson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,681).
Smithson shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,573).
Home / Away
Smithson
Eller
Home
58.4% (1,195)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
55.0% (1,150)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Smithson
Eller
P1
55.9%
51.2%
P2
55.3%
50.1%
P3
59.0%
50.2%
OT
54.2%
56.7%
Final 5 min
55.3%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.8%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2013 | 3 | 06:16 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 3 | 01:37 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 3 | 01:28 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 2 | 04:33 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 1 | 16:32 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 14, 2013 | 1 | 00:23 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 26, 2012 | 3 | 09:00 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 1 | 14:44 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 1 | 04:54 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 1 | 01:20 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 18, 2010 | 3 | 17:14 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 18, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 18, 2010 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 18, 2010 | 1 | 14:08 | Offensive | Lars Eller |