Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.8% vs 56.3%). Smithson wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 56.5% vs Sturm 56.1% (+0.5%)
Offensive zone
Sturm 50.3%
Defensive zone
Smithson 51.8%
Neutral zone
Smithson 52.9%
Result
Jerred Smithson favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Smithson
Sturm
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
58.4% (1,842)
57.1% (2,719)
+1.3%
Power Play
55.6% (45)
61.3% (62)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (443)
51.0% (498)
-0.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Smithson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,681).
Smithson shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Smithson
Sturm
Home
58.4% (1,195)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
55.0% (1,150)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Smithson
Sturm
P1
55.9%
56.5%
P2
55.3%
54.9%
P3
59.0%
57.4%
OT
54.2%
60.6%
Final 5 min
55.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%