Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Boqvist wins 31.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boqvist 42.2% vs Cates 45.5% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boqvist 52.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 65.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 55.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Boqvist
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Boqvist
Cates
Last 6: Boqvist 3-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Boqvist
2
0
Boqvist
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Boqvist
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Boqvist
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boqvist
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
35.9% (78)
45.4% (712)
-9.5%
Power Play
20.0% (5)
42.2% (102)
-22.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (4)
44.7% (47)
-44.7%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +44.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Boqvist is 31.1% vs left-shot opponents (61).
Boqvist shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Boqvist
Cates
Home
29.8% (57)
46.3% (423)
Away
40.0% (30)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Boqvist
Cates
P1
46.7%
46.3%
P2
29.4%
47.1%
P3
21.7%
42.1%
Final 5 min
36.0%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boqvist
32.0%▼
39.0%
33.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 03:47 | Offensive | Jesper Boqvist |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Jesper Boqvist |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 07:15 | Offensive | Jesper Boqvist |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Noah Cates |