Scouting Report
Jesse Winchester holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Winchester 53.7% vs Ellis 46.8% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Winchester 62.6%
Defensive zone
Winchester 67.1%
Neutral zone
Winchester 54.7%
Result
Jesse Winchester favored at 60.3%
60.3%
39.7%
Winchester
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Winchester
Ellis
Last 5: Winchester 3-2 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Winchester
Ellis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Winchester
1
0
Winchester
Ellis
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Winchester
Ellis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Winchester
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (716)
47.3% (607)
+7.9%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
28.6% (7)
+18.1%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (175)
42.1% (95)
+9.3%
On power play, Winchester has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Winchester is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Winchester shoots right. Ellis is 35.7% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Winchester
Ellis
Home
54.7% (459)
48.5% (303)
Away
53.4% (451)
44.8% (406)
By Period
Winchester
Ellis
P1
47.8%
50.0%
P2
57.8%
46.2%
P3
56.2%
41.3%
OT
57.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.1%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Winchester
44.0%▼
50.5%
54.1%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2011 | 3 | 18:08 | Offensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 3 | 04:11 | Defensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 1 | 02:09 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 2 | 10:39 | Neutral | Jesse Winchester |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 07:39 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |