Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sutter 50.6% vs Pavelski 55.5% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sutter 64.6%
Defensive zone
Sutter 70.9%
Neutral zone
Sutter 65.4%
Result
Brandon Sutter favored at 65.9%
65.9%
34.1%
Sutter
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Sutter
Pavelski
Last 8: Sutter 2-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Sutter
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sutter
1
0
Sutter
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
4
Sutter
Pavelski
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sutter
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,022)
55.0% (785)
-4.0%
Power Play
57.7% (104)
62.7% (201)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (233)
52.2% (161)
-6.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Sutter is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (506).
Sutter shoots right. Pavelski is 59.5% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Sutter
Pavelski
Home
51.4% (692)
58.1% (580)
Away
49.8% (667)
53.8% (567)
By Period
Sutter
Pavelski
P1
50.6%
53.4%
P2
49.1%
58.6%
P3
52.5%
56.4%
OT
45.8%
36.8%
Final 5 min
52.1%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sutter
62.0%▲
57.0%
50.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2015 | 3 | 19:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2015 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 29, 2015 | 2 | 00:08 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2015 | 1 | 01:08 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 29, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 10:51 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 1 | 17:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |