Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 52.7% vs Pavelski 54.4% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Grant 66.4%
Defensive zone
Grant 75.2%
Neutral zone
Grant 69.4%
Result
Derek Grant favored at 68.7%
68.7%
31.3%
Grant
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Grant
Pavelski
Last 5: Grant 1-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Grant
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
1
0
Grant
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Grant
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (511)
53.2% (690)
+0.2%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
61.5% (174)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (68)
55.3% (47)
-5.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Grant is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (225).
Grant shoots left. Pavelski is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (707).
Home / Away
Grant
Pavelski
Home
56.1% (344)
56.1% (421)
Away
49.0% (253)
53.9% (490)
By Period
Grant
Pavelski
P1
49.4%
57.1%
P2
56.1%
55.8%
P3
54.0%
52.5%
OT
0.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
49.2%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
53.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2018 | 1 | 16:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 1 | 06:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2017 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |