Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 48.8% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Grant 58.6%
Defensive zone
Grant 90.9%
Neutral zone
Grant 75.1%
Result
Derek Grant favored at 81.7%
81.7%
18.3%
Grant
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Grant
Pavelski
Last 7: Grant 1-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Grant
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
4
Grant
Pavelski
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (222)
52.5% (570)
-3.4%
Power Play
76.5% (17)
54.5% (145)
+22.0%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (181)
44.4% (36)
+0.9%
On power play, Grant has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Grant is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (145).
Grant shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Grant
Pavelski
Home
49.8% (223)
55.0% (391)
Away
47.2% (197)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Grant
Pavelski
P1
43.9%
50.8%
P2
49.7%
55.0%
P3
51.4%
52.0%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
48.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 02:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 11:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 08:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 06:34 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 17:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 07:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |