Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.5% vs Pavelski 55.5% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 60.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 93.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 86.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 68.8%
31.2%
68.8%
Roy
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
Roy
Pavelski
Last 10: Roy 7-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
9
0
Roy
Pavelski
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Roy
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Roy
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (351)
55.7% (849)
-12.7%
Power Play
61.3% (106)
60.0% (205)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
52.0% (152)
-18.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Roy is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Roy shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Roy
Pavelski
Home
52.3% (241)
59.2% (622)
Away
41.3% (225)
52.6% (584)
By Period
Roy
Pavelski
P1
51.6%
54.1%
P2
46.4%
56.4%
P3
43.1%
56.4%
OT
33.3%
65.6%
Final 5 min
47.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 17:44 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 09:52 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 09:33 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 2 | 00:40 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 1 | 05:27 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 2 | 11:37 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 2 | 00:44 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 1 | 14:12 | Offensive | Derek Roy |