Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 49.3% vs Pavelski 55.5% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 88.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 62.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 76.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 70.3%
29.7%
70.3%
Nielsen
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nielsen
Pavelski
Last 7: Nielsen 5-2 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
1
0
Nielsen
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nielsen
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nielsen
2
0
Nielsen
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (856)
55.7% (849)
-4.6%
Power Play
50.0% (38)
60.0% (205)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
41.1% (190)
52.0% (152)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Nielsen is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (426).
Nielsen shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Pavelski
Home
51.0% (510)
59.2% (622)
Away
47.7% (574)
52.6% (584)
By Period
Nielsen
Pavelski
P1
53.0%
54.1%
P2
45.4%
56.4%
P3
49.5%
56.4%
OT
50.0%
65.6%
Final 5 min
46.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2014 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 3 | 00:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 2 | 02:18 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 1 | 00:47 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 2 | 19:42 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 07:23 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |