Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nielsen wins 42.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 48.3% vs Pavelski 55.5% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nielsen 80.3%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 82.6%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 79.7%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Nielsen
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Nielsen
Pavelski
Last 8: Nielsen 2-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Nielsen
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Nielsen
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Nielsen
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (841)
55.0% (785)
-5.5%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
62.7% (201)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (172)
52.2% (161)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Nielsen is 42.8% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Nielsen shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Pavelski
Home
51.2% (510)
58.1% (580)
Away
45.4% (540)
53.8% (567)
By Period
Nielsen
Pavelski
P1
48.6%
53.4%
P2
47.4%
58.6%
P3
48.9%
56.4%
OT
40.0%
36.8%
Final 5 min
51.5%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 11:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 09:13 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 2 | 17:20 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 1 | 02:09 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 16, 2014 | OT | 01:04 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 3 | 00:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |