Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowell on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowell 49.1% vs Pavelski 53.9% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 82.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 81.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 88.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 83.2%
16.8%
83.2%
Dowell
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Dowell
Pavelski
Last 5: Dowell 4-1 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowell
3
1
Dowell
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowell
1
0
Dowell
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowell
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (573)
53.4% (682)
-3.5%
Power Play
33.3% (12)
63.7% (168)
-30.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (64)
48.1% (160)
-4.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Dowell is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Dowell shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Home / Away
Dowell
Pavelski
Home
52.5% (303)
59.0% (527)
Away
45.8% (349)
49.3% (493)
By Period
Dowell
Pavelski
P1
49.5%
50.8%
P2
47.0%
58.9%
P3
50.7%
53.6%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
46.9%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowell
38.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2011 | 1 | 09:51 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 11, 2010 | 3 | 08:14 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 11, 2010 | 2 | 15:06 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 3 | 19:57 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 2 | 07:25 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |