Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Franzen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Franzen 49.0% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 53.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 78.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 67.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Pavelski
Franzen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Pavelski
Franzen
Last 9: Pavelski 5-4 Franzen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Franzen
1
2
Pavelski
Franzen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Franzen
1
2
Pavelski
Franzen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Franzen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Franzen
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
48.5% (464)
+5.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
51.0% (149)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
42.9% (14)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Franzen shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Franzen is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (216).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Franzen
Home
56.4% (5,998)
51.1% (368)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
45.6% (261)
By Period
Pavelski
Franzen
P1
53.5%
51.9%
P2
55.2%
50.0%
P3
53.9%
43.5%
OT
52.3%
52.9%
Final 5 min
54.4%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Franzen
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2013 | 3 | 13:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2013 | 2 | 10:40 | Defensive | Johan Franzen |
| Oct 21, 2013 | 1 | 13:44 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 11, 2013 | 1 | 15:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 19, 2012 | 3 | 19:57 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 19, 2012 | 3 | 14:54 | Defensive | Johan Franzen |
| Feb 19, 2012 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Johan Franzen |
| Feb 19, 2012 | 2 | 10:40 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 3 | 12:04 | Offensive | Johan Franzen |