Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — MacLean shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs MacLean 47.9% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 92.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 83.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 83.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 83.8%
83.8%
16.2%
Pavelski
MacLean
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pavelski
MacLean
Last 5: Pavelski 4-1 MacLean
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
MacLean
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
MacLean
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
47.2% (849)
+6.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
62.5% (8)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
56.7% (30)
-5.8%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacLean shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. MacLean is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (315).
Home / Away
Pavelski
MacLean
Home
56.4% (5,998)
46.9% (426)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
48.4% (461)
By Period
Pavelski
MacLean
P1
53.5%
46.6%
P2
55.2%
49.7%
P3
53.9%
46.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
MacLean
56.0%▬
56.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 03:41 | Defensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 14:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 17:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 11:13 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |