Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Turris on offensive-zone draws (54% H2H, 13 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Turris shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Turris 50.3% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Turris leads 24-23 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Turris 56.4%
Defensive zone
Turris 52.1%
Neutral zone
Turris 54.8%
Result
Kyle Turris favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Pavelski
Turris
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
24
(47 meetings)
23
24
Pavelski
Turris
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Turris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turris
6
7
Pavelski
Turris
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
9
8
Pavelski
Turris
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turris
8
9
Pavelski
Turris
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Turris
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.2% (7,653)
+3.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
52.4% (1,312)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
48.6% (580)
+2.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Turris shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Turris is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Turris
Home
56.4% (5,998)
53.5% (4,794)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.1% (4,756)
By Period
Pavelski
Turris
P1
53.5%
51.5%
P2
55.2%
50.8%
P3
53.9%
48.4%
OT
52.3%
56.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Turris
56.0%▲
49.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2020 | 2 | 05:36 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 3 | 10:59 | Defensive | Kyle Turris |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Kyle Turris |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 2 | 09:04 | Neutral | Kyle Turris |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 2 | 05:23 | Neutral | Kyle Turris |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Kyle Turris |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 3 | 11:40 | Neutral | Kyle Turris |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Kyle Turris |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 1 | 19:42 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 12:49 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 2 | 18:14 | Defensive | Kyle Turris |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 2 | 13:08 | Offensive | Kyle Turris |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Kyle Turris |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 1 | 05:12 | Neutral | Kyle Turris |
| Dec 18, 2015 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2015 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2015 | 1 | 04:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2015 | 1 | 04:26 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2015 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |