Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (76% H2H, 21 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Eller 50.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 27-21 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 56.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 80.1%
Neutral zone
Eller 63.4%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 68.5%
31.5%
68.5%
Pavelski
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
27
(48 meetings)
21
27
Pavelski
Eller
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
9
6
Pavelski
Eller
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
5
16
Pavelski
Eller
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
5
Pavelski
Eller
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
51.1% (10,296)
+2.5%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
52.8% (621)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
46.7% (1,751)
+4.2%
On power play, Pavelski has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,573).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Eller
Home
56.4% (5,998)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Pavelski
Eller
P1
53.5%
51.2%
P2
55.2%
50.1%
P3
53.9%
50.2%
OT
52.3%
56.7%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 02:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 00:07 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 12:06 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:15 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 02:59 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:42 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 2 | 14:56 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 10:04 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 08:53 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 01:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 1 | 15:32 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 3 | 13:21 | Defensive | Lars Eller |