Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Eller 49.5% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 54.6%
Defensive zone
Eller 84.1%
Neutral zone
Eller 66.4%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 80.6%
19.4%
80.6%
Pavelski
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pavelski
Eller
Last 5: Pavelski 1-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
3
Pavelski
Eller
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Pavelski
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
51.1% (786)
+1.4%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
45.0% (80)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
43.6% (165)
+0.8%
On power play, Pavelski has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Eller is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (354).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Eller
Home
55.0% (391)
51.2% (510)
Away
49.7% (360)
47.8% (521)
By Period
Pavelski
Eller
P1
50.8%
50.7%
P2
55.0%
49.0%
P3
52.0%
48.3%
OT
25.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
56.2%
45.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:15 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 02:59 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:42 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 2 | 14:56 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |