Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stempniak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.9% vs Stempniak 46.9% (+14.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 87.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 92.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 90.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 90.5%
90.5%
9.5%
Pavelski
Stempniak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Pavelski
Stempniak
Last 6: Pavelski 5-1 Stempniak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Stempniak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Stempniak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Stempniak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stempniak
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (682)
42.9% (35)
+10.5%
Power Play
63.7% (168)
22.2% (9)
+41.5%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (160)
100.0% (1)
-51.9%
On penalty kill, Stempniak has a +51.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stempniak shoots right. Pavelski is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (230).
Pavelski shoots right. Stempniak is 15.4% vs right-shot opponents (13).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stempniak
Home
59.0% (527)
44.4% (27)
Away
49.3% (493)
33.3% (18)
By Period
Pavelski
Stempniak
P1
50.8%
42.9%
P2
58.9%
44.4%
P3
53.6%
30.8%
Final 5 min
54.1%
35.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Stempniak
26.0%▼
29.9%
40.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 10:30 | Offensive | Lee Stempniak |
| Apr 8, 2011 | 2 | 06:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 3 | 04:10 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 2 | 15:17 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 3 | 13:42 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |