Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +24.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stempniak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Stempniak 36.7% (+24.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 96.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 97.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 96.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 97.0%
97.0%
3.0%
Pavelski
Stempniak
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Pavelski
Stempniak
Last 8: Pavelski 7-1 Stempniak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Stempniak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Stempniak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Stempniak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stempniak
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
32.6% (144)
+21.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
24.0% (25)
+34.2%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
20.0% (25)
+30.9%
On power play, Pavelski has a +34.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stempniak shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Stempniak is 17.2% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stempniak
Home
56.4% (5,998)
33.3% (105)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
25.8% (89)
By Period
Pavelski
Stempniak
P1
53.5%
22.4%
P2
55.2%
33.3%
P3
53.9%
31.5%
OT
52.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.4%
23.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Stempniak
26.0%▼
29.9%
29.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2015 | 3 | 15:57 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 12, 2013 | 1 | 04:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 10:30 | Offensive | Lee Stempniak |
| Apr 8, 2011 | 2 | 06:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 3 | 04:10 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 2 | 15:17 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 3 | 13:42 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |