Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kempe shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Kempe 41.0% (+14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 78.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 68.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 60.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Pavelski
Kempe
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Pavelski
Kempe
Last 7: Pavelski 4-3 Kempe
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Kempe
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
0
1
Pavelski
Kempe
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Kempe
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kempe
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
38.5% (312)
+15.5%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
33.3% (3)
+23.8%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
35.7% (14)
+6.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kempe shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Pavelski shoots right. Kempe is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (110).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kempe
Home
55.2% (458)
38.8% (160)
Away
51.4% (531)
37.9% (169)
By Period
Pavelski
Kempe
P1
54.0%
35.9%
P2
54.5%
39.0%
P3
50.5%
38.9%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Kempe
50.0%▲
38.5%
38.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 15:08 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 10:33 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 06:03 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Mario Kempe |