Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kempe shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Kempe 40.7% (+15.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 81.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 68.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 71.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 72.2%
72.2%
27.8%
Pavelski
Kempe
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Pavelski
Kempe
Last 7: Pavelski 4-3 Kempe
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Kempe
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
0
1
Pavelski
Kempe
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Kempe
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kempe
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
38.7% (380)
+14.9%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
33.3% (3)
+24.9%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
31.3% (16)
+19.6%
On power play, Pavelski has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kempe shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Kempe is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (127).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kempe
Home
56.4% (5,998)
40.1% (177)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
36.9% (222)
By Period
Pavelski
Kempe
P1
53.5%
34.7%
P2
55.2%
40.4%
P3
53.9%
38.8%
OT
52.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Kempe
50.0%▲
38.5%
38.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 15:08 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 10:33 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 06:03 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Mario Kempe |