Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 53.4%). Look for Hendricks on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hendricks shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Hendricks 53.3% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Hendricks leads 13-13 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 71.6%
Defensive zone
Hendricks 72.7%
Neutral zone
Hendricks 50.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Pavelski
Hendricks
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
13
(26 meetings)
13
13
Pavelski
Hendricks
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Hendricks
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
11
7
Pavelski
Hendricks
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hendricks
0
5
Pavelski
Hendricks
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Hendricks
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Hendricks
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
55.0% (1,616)
-1.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
52.6% (38)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
48.4% (446)
+2.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hendricks shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Hendricks is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (870).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Hendricks
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.6% (1,023)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
54.3% (1,080)
By Period
Pavelski
Hendricks
P1
53.5%
53.2%
P2
55.2%
53.3%
P3
53.9%
53.6%
OT
52.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Hendricks
60.0%▲
50.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2018 | 2 | 19:35 | Offensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 3 | 04:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 2 | 09:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 14:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 1 | 12:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 15:52 | Defensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 1 | 08:58 | Offensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 1 | 08:55 | Offensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Mar 24, 2016 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Mar 24, 2016 | 1 | 14:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2016 | 1 | 11:05 | Defensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Dec 9, 2015 | OT | 03:30 | Offensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Dec 9, 2015 | 3 | 19:35 | Offensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Dec 9, 2015 | 2 | 08:12 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 9, 2015 | 1 | 19:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 9, 2015 | 1 | 06:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2014 | 2 | 14:26 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |