Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.6% vs Lombardi 46.1% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 57.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 87.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 77.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
Pavelski
Lombardi
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Pavelski
Lombardi
Last 8: Pavelski 5-3 Lombardi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lombardi
0
2
Pavelski
Lombardi
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Lombardi
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Lombardi
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Lombardi
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (480)
46.8% (203)
+3.6%
Power Play
51.5% (97)
33.3% (27)
+18.2%
Penalty Kill
60.2% (83)
16.7% (6)
+43.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +43.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lombardi shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (490).
Pavelski shoots right. Lombardi is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Lombardi
Home
53.1% (311)
44.0% (109)
Away
50.7% (349)
44.9% (127)
By Period
Pavelski
Lombardi
P1
55.4%
47.0%
P2
49.6%
42.2%
P3
51.7%
43.5%
OT
36.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.8%
Lombardi
46.0%▲
43.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2013 | 3 | 08:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 3 | 08:33 | Offensive | Matthew Lombardi |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 2 | 02:58 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 1 | 15:48 | Neutral | Matthew Lombardi |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Matthew Lombardi |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 1 | 02:02 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 2 | 04:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |