Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Domi on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Domi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Domi 48.8% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Domi leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Domi 74.7%
Defensive zone
Domi 75.2%
Neutral zone
Domi 75.5%
Result
Max Domi favored at 75.1%
24.9%
75.1%
Pavelski
Domi
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
16
(28 meetings)
12
16
Pavelski
Domi
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Domi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
1
10
Pavelski
Domi
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
9
3
Pavelski
Domi
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Domi
2
3
Pavelski
Domi
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Domi
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
48.2% (4,232)
+5.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
52.7% (622)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
48.8% (41)
+2.1%
On power play, Pavelski has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Domi shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Domi is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,608).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Domi
Home
56.4% (5,998)
49.7% (2,572)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.7% (2,323)
By Period
Pavelski
Domi
P1
53.5%
48.8%
P2
55.2%
48.0%
P3
53.9%
49.8%
OT
52.3%
42.6%
Final 5 min
54.4%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Domi
40.0%▼
50.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 13:38 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:46 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:41 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 2 | 15:14 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Feb 15, 2020 | OT | 01:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 12:33 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 16:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 08:55 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 08:50 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 2, 2018 | 3 | 17:56 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 2, 2018 | 3 | 16:03 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 2, 2018 | 3 | 08:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |