Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Richards shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 57.8% vs Richards 50.5% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 83.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 80.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 91.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Pavelski
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
Pavelski
Richards
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Richards
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Richards
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Richards
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (569)
50.0% (776)
+7.8%
Power Play
60.2% (161)
50.0% (130)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
59.5% (121)
54.5% (145)
+5.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Pavelski is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (681).
Pavelski shoots right. Richards is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Richards
Home
61.0% (403)
47.2% (549)
Away
56.6% (461)
54.1% (518)
By Period
Pavelski
Richards
P1
62.9%
52.5%
P2
56.6%
50.9%
P3
57.1%
47.5%
OT
57.9%
59.1%
Final 5 min
53.6%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2012 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2012 | 3 | 02:48 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2012 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 2 | 07:53 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 13:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 06:53 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 3 | 14:08 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 3 | 07:16 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 3 | 02:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |