Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 26 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Richards shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Richards 50.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 33-21 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 87.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 73.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 83.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 80.2%
80.2%
19.8%
Pavelski
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
21
(54 meetings)
33
21
Pavelski
Richards
Last 10: Pavelski 2-8 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
11
7
Pavelski
Richards
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
18
8
Pavelski
Richards
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richards
4
6
Pavelski
Richards
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.0% (3,722)
+3.6%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
54.6% (445)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
51.4% (502)
-0.5%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Richards is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,577).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Richards
Home
56.4% (5,998)
50.8% (2,363)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
50.3% (2,336)
By Period
Pavelski
Richards
P1
53.5%
49.6%
P2
55.2%
52.3%
P3
53.9%
49.3%
OT
52.3%
58.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2016 | 2 | 19:47 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 2 | 07:41 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 2 | 03:28 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 05:02 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 02:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2015 | 2 | 15:40 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Jan 21, 2015 | 2 | 04:44 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Jan 21, 2015 | 1 | 12:42 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Jan 21, 2015 | 1 | 09:40 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 2 | 19:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 1 | 17:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 1 | 09:49 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2014 | 3 | 17:00 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2014 | 3 | 03:25 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2014 | 3 | 00:13 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Apr 3, 2014 | 2 | 17:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2014 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Apr 3, 2014 | 1 | 18:21 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |