Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Rantanen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Rantanen 50.8% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Rantanen 68.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 96.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 75.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Pavelski
Rantanen
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Pavelski
Rantanen
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Rantanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rantanen
0
4
Pavelski
Rantanen
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
0
Pavelski
Rantanen
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Rantanen
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
51.0% (1,522)
+2.6%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
50.8% (484)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
14.3% (7)
+36.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +36.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rantanen shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Rantanen is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (785).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Rantanen
Home
56.4% (5,998)
53.0% (1,067)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
48.3% (946)
By Period
Pavelski
Rantanen
P1
53.5%
49.0%
P2
55.2%
51.3%
P3
53.9%
51.8%
OT
52.3%
57.8%
Final 5 min
54.4%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Rantanen
50.0%▼
52.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 17:30 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 19:28 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 03:45 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 08:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 06:38 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 1 | 12:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |