Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Elias on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Elias 42.7% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Elias leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 54.1%
Defensive zone
Elias 52.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 54.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Pavelski
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
Pavelski
Elias
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Elias
2
5
Pavelski
Elias
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
2
Pavelski
Elias
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
3
Pavelski
Elias
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
42.3% (2,591)
+11.3%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
48.4% (405)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
36.0% (367)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Elias is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Elias
Home
56.4% (5,998)
43.2% (1,683)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
41.7% (1,725)
By Period
Pavelski
Elias
P1
53.5%
41.1%
P2
55.2%
43.1%
P3
53.9%
43.0%
OT
52.3%
43.2%
Final 5 min
54.4%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2015 | 2 | 13:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 3 | 14:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2 | 14:50 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2 | 11:45 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2 | 03:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 1 | 14:36 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 2 | 13:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 14:33 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 09:21 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 09:09 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 02:44 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 1 | 11:24 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 1 | 08:18 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 1 | 04:25 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |