Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.0% vs 55.3%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.5% vs Gaustad 54.7% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 94.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 80.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 63.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Pavelski
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Pavelski
Gaustad
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
1
Pavelski
Gaustad
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
2
Pavelski
Gaustad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Gaustad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (657)
56.2% (603)
-2.6%
Power Play
60.2% (221)
71.4% (21)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (60)
49.3% (148)
+2.4%
On power play, Gaustad has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Pavelski shoots right. Gaustad is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gaustad
Home
57.4% (470)
55.5% (366)
Away
52.6% (468)
55.2% (406)
By Period
Pavelski
Gaustad
P1
53.4%
55.0%
P2
55.6%
56.9%
P3
55.5%
53.7%
OT
62.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
55.9%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2016 | 3 | 11:40 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 1 | 17:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 2 | 15:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 3 | 11:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 2 | 03:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 1 | 15:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |