Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (96% H2H, 26 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 33-32 in 65 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 84.8%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 90.7%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 61.6%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Pavelski
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
32
(65 meetings)
33
32
Pavelski
Gaustad
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
25
3
Pavelski
Gaustad
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
25
Pavelski
Gaustad
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
4
Pavelski
Gaustad
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
58.2% (4,334)
-4.6%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
65.4% (188)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
54.8% (1,290)
-3.9%
On power play, Gaustad has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gaustad
Home
56.4% (5,998)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Pavelski
Gaustad
P1
53.5%
58.2%
P2
55.2%
56.4%
P3
53.9%
58.3%
OT
52.3%
66.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2016 | 3 | 11:40 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 1 | 17:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 2 | 15:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 3 | 11:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 2 | 03:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 1 | 15:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 1 | 11:16 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 1 | 04:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 3 | 18:24 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 3 | 15:39 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 3 | 12:10 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 3 | 05:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |