Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Holland shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Holland 46.9% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 92.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 86.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 91.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 91.0%
91.0%
9.0%
Pavelski
Holland
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pavelski
Holland
Last 5: Pavelski 4-1 Holland
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Holland
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Holland
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Holland
0
1
Pavelski
Holland
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Holland
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
46.0% (374)
+9.7%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
55.6% (18)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
0.0% (3)
+52.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +52.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holland shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. Holland is 41.1% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Holland
Home
59.2% (622)
46.7% (225)
Away
52.6% (584)
45.3% (170)
By Period
Pavelski
Holland
P1
54.1%
48.2%
P2
56.4%
47.1%
P3
56.4%
41.9%
OT
65.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.8%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Holland
38.0%▼
48.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2014 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 11, 2014 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 3 | 17:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 1 | 17:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 1 | 10:00 | Neutral | Peter Holland |