Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Holland shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Holland 45.9% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 18-11 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 95.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 80.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 91.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 88.9%
88.9%
11.1%
Pavelski
Holland
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
11
(29 meetings)
18
11
Pavelski
Holland
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Holland
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
1
Pavelski
Holland
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Holland
3
6
Pavelski
Holland
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
4
Pavelski
Holland
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Holland
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
45.6% (2,232)
+8.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
52.4% (126)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
42.3% (137)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holland shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Holland is 42.8% vs right-shot opponents (890).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Holland
Home
56.4% (5,998)
48.6% (1,288)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
42.7% (1,207)
By Period
Pavelski
Holland
P1
53.5%
46.1%
P2
55.2%
47.3%
P3
53.9%
43.9%
OT
52.3%
39.1%
Final 5 min
54.4%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Holland
38.0%▼
48.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2018 | 2 | 17:09 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 2 | 11:04 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 1 | 05:45 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 1 | 03:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 1 | 01:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 9, 2016 | 2 | 05:14 | Defensive | Peter Holland |
| Jan 9, 2016 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 09:29 | Defensive | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 06:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 19:14 | Neutral | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 08:48 | Defensive | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 08:44 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 00:09 | Neutral | Peter Holland |
| Mar 11, 2014 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 11, 2014 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |