Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Holland on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Holland shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.5% vs Holland 47.1% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Holland leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Holland 60.8%
Defensive zone
Holland 77.0%
Neutral zone
Holland 65.8%
Result
Peter Holland favored at 68.6%
31.4%
68.6%
Pavelski
Holland
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Pavelski
Holland
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Holland
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Holland
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Holland
1
4
Pavelski
Holland
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Holland
1
3
Pavelski
Holland
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Holland
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (657)
45.7% (411)
+7.9%
Power Play
60.2% (221)
55.9% (34)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (60)
45.0% (20)
+6.7%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holland shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Pavelski shoots right. Holland is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Holland
Home
57.4% (470)
48.9% (219)
Away
52.6% (468)
44.3% (246)
By Period
Pavelski
Holland
P1
53.4%
44.0%
P2
55.6%
51.7%
P3
55.5%
44.6%
OT
62.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Holland
38.0%▼
48.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2016 | 2 | 05:14 | Defensive | Peter Holland |
| Jan 9, 2016 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 09:29 | Defensive | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 06:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 19:14 | Neutral | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 08:48 | Defensive | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 08:44 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 00:09 | Neutral | Peter Holland |