Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sheahan on defensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sheahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Sheahan 50.1% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Sheahan leads 20-18 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 69.1%
Defensive zone
Sheahan 74.8%
Neutral zone
Sheahan 58.7%
Result
Riley Sheahan favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Pavelski
Sheahan
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
20
(38 meetings)
18
20
Pavelski
Sheahan
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Sheahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
12
5
Pavelski
Sheahan
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sheahan
2
11
Pavelski
Sheahan
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Pavelski
Sheahan
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Sheahan
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
51.0% (4,968)
+2.6%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
55.6% (322)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
44.3% (1,068)
+6.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sheahan shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Sheahan is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,365).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Sheahan
Home
56.4% (5,998)
51.1% (3,247)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
49.0% (3,111)
By Period
Pavelski
Sheahan
P1
53.5%
51.3%
P2
55.2%
51.2%
P3
53.9%
48.1%
OT
52.3%
35.6%
Final 5 min
54.4%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Sheahan
52.0%▲
49.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 06:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 17:47 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 10:05 | Offensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 1 | 03:55 | Neutral | Riley Sheahan |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 3 | 06:39 | Neutral | Riley Sheahan |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 1 | 08:25 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 12:50 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 09:47 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 05:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 11:37 | Offensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 18:41 | Neutral | Riley Sheahan |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 03:34 | Neutral | Riley Sheahan |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 3 | 13:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 3 | 13:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 2 | 01:25 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 2 | 16:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 1 | 10:11 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 01:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 03:53 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |