Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Sheahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Sheahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.5% vs Sheahan 46.3% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sheahan 55.6%
Defensive zone
Sheahan 78.7%
Neutral zone
Sheahan 65.4%
Result
Riley Sheahan favored at 72.6%
27.4%
72.6%
Pavelski
Sheahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Pavelski
Sheahan
Last 6: Pavelski 2-4 Sheahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Sheahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sheahan
0
4
Pavelski
Sheahan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Sheahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Sheahan
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (657)
45.9% (619)
+7.7%
Power Play
60.2% (221)
46.7% (45)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (60)
44.9% (118)
+6.8%
On power play, Pavelski has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sheahan shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Pavelski shoots right. Sheahan is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (293).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Sheahan
Home
57.4% (470)
44.8% (402)
Away
52.6% (468)
46.8% (380)
By Period
Pavelski
Sheahan
P1
53.4%
48.9%
P2
55.6%
44.8%
P3
55.5%
43.5%
OT
62.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.9%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Sheahan
52.0%▲
49.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2016 | 2 | 03:42 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Jan 7, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 7, 2016 | 1 | 18:09 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Jan 7, 2016 | 1 | 17:07 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Jan 7, 2016 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Nov 13, 2015 | 1 | 03:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |