Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 61.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.4% vs Kesler 52.9% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 88.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 58.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 64.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
Pavelski
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Pavelski
Kesler
Last 8: Pavelski 6-2 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Kesler
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Kesler
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
Pavelski
Kesler
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (690)
55.2% (567)
-2.0%
Power Play
61.5% (174)
54.9% (51)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (47)
45.0% (131)
+10.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Pavelski is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Pavelski shoots right. Kesler is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (234).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kesler
Home
56.1% (421)
55.7% (388)
Away
53.9% (490)
50.8% (362)
By Period
Pavelski
Kesler
P1
57.1%
56.3%
P2
55.8%
52.5%
P3
52.5%
52.6%
OT
44.4%
35.3%
Final 5 min
60.8%
60.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2018 | OT | 02:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | OT | 00:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 3 | 17:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 2 | 19:12 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 2 | 15:54 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 1 | 14:13 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |