Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 44 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Kesler 55.9% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 75-54 in 129 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 54.7%
Defensive zone
Kesler 69.7%
Neutral zone
Kesler 55.7%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Pavelski
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
75
-
54
(129 meetings)
75
54
Pavelski
Kesler
Last 10: Pavelski 8-2 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
26
21
Pavelski
Kesler
47 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
28
16
Pavelski
Kesler
44 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
21
17
Pavelski
Kesler
38 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
56.4% (8,095)
-2.8%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
60.7% (1,437)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
50.5% (1,908)
+0.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Kesler is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (3,497).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kesler
Home
56.4% (5,998)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Pavelski
Kesler
P1
53.5%
56.5%
P2
55.2%
55.9%
P3
53.9%
56.1%
OT
52.3%
46.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2018 | 3 | 05:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 17:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 10:04 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 1 | 00:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | OT | 02:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | OT | 00:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 3 | 17:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 2 | 19:12 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 2 | 15:54 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 1 | 14:13 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 3 | 05:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 18:29 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 01:11 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |