Joe Pavelski vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2011-12 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +21.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 57.8% vs Nugent-Hopkins 39.3% (+21.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 79.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 95.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 92.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 94.5%
94.5%
5.5%
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 5: Pavelski 4-1 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (569)
37.1% (566)
+20.7%
Power Play
60.2% (161)
54.5% (22)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
59.5% (121)
40.0% (5)
+19.5%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Pavelski is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (681).
Pavelski shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 39.0% vs right-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
61.0% (403)
37.5% (312)
Away
56.6% (461)
37.5% (293)
By Period
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
62.9%
35.4%
P2
56.6%
37.8%
P3
57.1%
39.9%
OT
57.9%
28.6%
Final 5 min
53.6%
37.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
37.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2012 | 3 | 07:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 2 | 15:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 2 | 06:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 1 | 01:03 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 2 | 15:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |