Joe Pavelski vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Nugent-Hopkins 45.8% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 90.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 57.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 79.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 8: Pavelski 5-3 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
2
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
45.4% (527)
+6.9%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
41.2% (17)
+16.3%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
44.9% (138)
+17.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (231).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
54.2% (360)
46.1% (336)
Away
52.6% (329)
44.2% (346)
By Period
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
54.5%
49.1%
P2
56.7%
45.3%
P3
50.8%
42.0%
OT
30.8%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:53 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 07:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 17:08 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1 | 19:14 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 02:42 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |