Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Smyth shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 57.8% vs Smyth 46.4% (+14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 86.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 96.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 92.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 91.5%
91.5%
8.5%
Pavelski
Smyth
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Pavelski
Smyth
Last 6: Pavelski 5-1 Smyth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Smyth
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Smyth
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Smyth
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Smyth
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (569)
40.0% (90)
+17.8%
Power Play
60.2% (161)
63.0% (46)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
59.5% (121)
8.3% (12)
+51.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +51.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smyth shoots left. Pavelski is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (681).
Pavelski shoots right. Smyth is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Smyth
Home
61.0% (403)
47.1% (68)
Away
56.6% (461)
41.5% (82)
By Period
Pavelski
Smyth
P1
62.9%
45.8%
P2
56.6%
40.4%
P3
57.1%
45.8%
OT
57.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
30.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Smyth
50.0%▬
50.5%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2012 | OT | 03:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 08:20 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 3 | 16:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 3 | 14:52 | Defensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 2 | 18:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |