Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Smyth shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Smyth 45.8% (+9.0%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 86.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 95.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 94.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 91.9%
91.9%
8.1%
Pavelski
Smyth
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
Pavelski
Smyth
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Smyth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Smyth
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
Smyth
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Smyth
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Smyth
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
45.2% (456)
+8.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
51.8% (164)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
23.3% (43)
+27.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +27.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smyth shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Smyth is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (232).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Smyth
Home
56.4% (5,998)
49.7% (340)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
40.5% (326)
By Period
Pavelski
Smyth
P1
53.5%
48.3%
P2
55.2%
41.7%
P3
53.9%
46.5%
OT
52.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Smyth
50.0%▬
50.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2014 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2013 | 3 | 12:12 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 16:53 | Neutral | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 10:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 6, 2012 | OT | 03:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 08:20 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 3 | 16:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 3 | 14:52 | Defensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 2 | 18:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2011 | 2 | 00:28 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |