Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Steel 49.4% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 76.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 74.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 63.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Pavelski
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Pavelski
Steel
Last 8: Pavelski 5-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Steel
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Steel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
49.5% (204)
+4.5%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
57.1% (7)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
33.3% (9)
+8.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Pavelski shoots right. Steel is 43.6% vs right-shot opponents (78).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Steel
Home
55.2% (458)
53.2% (77)
Away
51.4% (531)
46.9% (143)
By Period
Pavelski
Steel
P1
54.0%
45.5%
P2
54.5%
49.4%
P3
50.5%
52.5%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 17:23 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 12:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 04:36 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 2 | 18:40 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 1 | 13:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |