Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Steel 49.4% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 81.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 58.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 61.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Pavelski
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Pavelski
Steel
Last 6: Pavelski 4-2 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Steel
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
2
Pavelski
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
49.3% (383)
+3.2%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
59.1% (22)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
14.3% (7)
+30.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +30.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Steel is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Steel
Home
55.0% (391)
49.4% (180)
Away
49.7% (360)
49.1% (232)
By Period
Pavelski
Steel
P1
50.8%
51.9%
P2
55.0%
43.8%
P3
52.0%
52.6%
Final 5 min
56.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 17:28 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 14:10 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 10:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 15:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 04:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |