Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gomez shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Gomez 47.0% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 79.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 89.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 84.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 84.7%
84.7%
15.3%
Pavelski
Gomez
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pavelski
Gomez
Last 7: Pavelski 5-2 Gomez
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Gomez
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Gomez
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Gomez
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gomez
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
46.4% (676)
+8.6%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
48.6% (105)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (161)
28.6% (7)
+23.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gomez shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Pavelski shoots right. Gomez is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gomez
Home
58.1% (580)
46.5% (417)
Away
53.8% (567)
46.6% (371)
By Period
Pavelski
Gomez
P1
53.4%
46.7%
P2
58.6%
45.1%
P3
56.4%
48.1%
OT
36.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Gomez
52.0%▲
46.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2015 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 3 | 10:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 2 | 03:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 1 | 08:06 | Defensive | Scott Gomez |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 1 | 05:55 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Scott Gomez |