Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Ott shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Ott 53.5% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 80.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 57.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 65.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
Pavelski
Ott
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Pavelski
Ott
Last 6: Pavelski 4-2 Ott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
Ott
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ott
0
1
Pavelski
Ott
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Ott
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
55.6% (583)
+0.1%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
57.0% (128)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
47.1% (206)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ott shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. Ott is 58.5% vs right-shot opponents (371).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Ott
Home
59.2% (622)
54.1% (512)
Away
52.6% (584)
53.6% (405)
By Period
Pavelski
Ott
P1
54.1%
53.3%
P2
56.4%
52.8%
P3
56.4%
56.1%
OT
65.6%
45.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Ott
60.0%▲
53.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2013 | OT | 03:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | OT | 03:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Steve Ott |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 14:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 10:21 | Offensive | Steve Ott |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 14:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |