Scouting Report
Steve Ott holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (66% H2H, 38 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Ott shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Ott 55.4% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 34-31 in 65 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 63.6%
Defensive zone
Ott 75.3%
Neutral zone
Ott 54.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Pavelski
Ott
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
31
(65 meetings)
34
31
Pavelski
Ott
Last 10: Pavelski 8-2 Ott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
25
13
Pavelski
Ott
38 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ott
6
13
Pavelski
Ott
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ott
3
5
Pavelski
Ott
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Ott
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
57.2% (2,802)
-3.6%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
55.4% (567)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
49.9% (853)
+1.0%
On even strength, Ott has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ott shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Ott is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,681).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Ott
Home
56.4% (5,998)
56.8% (2,130)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
54.2% (2,103)
By Period
Pavelski
Ott
P1
53.5%
56.7%
P2
55.2%
53.9%
P3
53.9%
55.7%
OT
52.3%
60.8%
Final 5 min
54.4%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Ott
60.0%▲
53.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2016 | 2 | 00:38 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 1 | 15:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2014 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2014 | 2 | 07:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2014 | 1 | 14:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | OT | 03:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | OT | 03:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Steve Ott |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 14:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 10:21 | Offensive | Steve Ott |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 14:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 3 | 18:42 | Offensive | Steve Ott |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 3 | 15:39 | Offensive | Steve Ott |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 2 | 08:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 2 | 05:54 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 2 | 01:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 1 | 15:34 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 1 | 13:13 | Offensive | Steve Ott |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 1 | 08:41 | Offensive | Steve Ott |